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Market Signal Alerts

The ABSR systematic model was specifically designed to identify price peaks and valleys that occur during roughly the 12 month period prior to a futures contracts first notice date. Example: Dec 2018 Corn signals are generated between Dec 1, 2017 and Nov 30, 2018. Historically, our model identifies 6-7 buy and sell signals on average during that period. As a general rule we only use signals with 50% or higher confidence levels in our individual contract marketing portfolio models.

Our system is recalculated each evening generally between 6:30pm-8:00pm CT once the official settlements have been distributed from our provider. If a new signal is generated, we send a text alert message to your cell phone that evening notifying you it may be time to take action. Our text alerts are specific...they contain a signal date, execution price and confidence level.

Unless stated otherwise in the description, we almost always trail our buy and sell price level and allow the market to "put us" is a position. We recommend that you use only "stop limit" orders to avoid runaway markets during overnight or illiquid periods. The limit is up to you, but we would suggest about 1% of the contract value as a buffer. Example: A sell stop limit for corn might be Sell X Corn @ 4.00 limit 3.96.

In addition, signal alerts along with a more detailed description and history of the signals can be found on our website platform under the Signal Reports" tab within the Commodity Analytics tab.

The ABSR Agriculture Edge Market Monitor

The Ag Edge Market Monitor is our daily commentary on the technical state of the market. Currently, the monitor includes commentary on corn, soybeans, wheat, live cattle, lean hogs and cotton. We email the Ag monitor each morning before 7:00am CT giving you plenty of time to make adjustments to your marketing plan before the opening bell. 

Highlights of the Ag Monitor include our top section News to Know, technical market commentary, estimated market carry and basis forecast (livestock not included) and a host of technical charts highlighting trends in the underlying market. Below is a guide to the individual components within the Ag Monitor.

Technical Market Matrix

Plotting the intersection of trend and momentum on a grid allows us to easily visualize the technical state of both an individual contract and the agriculture complex as a whole. Bubble graphs add a third layer of information.  The size of each bubble represents our confidence in the quality of the data based non technical factors. The larger the area of the bubble the more confidence we have in the data and any signal it might generate. Each grid section represents a specific probability of a market being at a key high or low during a marketing season. The further to the top right, the higher the probability the market will fall into the top 1/3 of prices for the marketing year (overbought). The further to the bottom left, the higher the odds the price level will fall into the bottom 1/3 of prices (oversold).

Market Gauges

There are dozens of technical indicators and a whole host of various seasonal and historical data sets that professional traders monitor daily. We combined 6 of the most influential in easy to read gauges for our Ag Monitor newsletter. Both a long and intermediate term trend, technical momentum, a seasonal and historical ranking gauge and our proprietary commitment of traders index.

 

Gauge Guide

With just a glance you get the entire picture of the technical, seasonal and historical "state of the market". When gauges are in the green, prices are potentially oversold or at seasonal and historical levels that represent  good buying opportunities. When gauges are in the red, prices are potentially overbought or at seasonal and historical levels that represent attractive sells.

Settlements & Estimated Cash and Carry Values

Our settlements and estimated total carry table helps you evaluate the cost / benefit relationship of storing grain for both the current old and new crop years. From a time series analysis study of central Illinois basis, we estimate the most statistically likely path of basis for the marketing year.  Combined with a full carry commercial cost calculation we can estimate the total cost or benefit to storing grain on a month to month time frame. These values, are given in both net cents per bushel and annualized rate of return.

Technical Charts

Our proprietary technical charts are truly unique and you will not find them on another service. What makes our charts special is our addition of the weekly large speculator net position changes from commitment of traders data. In addition we calculate where we believe the largest volume of trades went through and at the price level represents the pivot or break-even for these managed funds accounts. This is crucial information for anyone managing commodity price risk as these flows represent such a large volume of trading interest.  

Forward Adjusted Basis Charts

Forward Adjusted Basis

Next to outright price, basis is the next most important factor in deciding when to market grain. Our forward adjusted basis charts give you a current and historical view of both the seasonal bias and current (relative) level of basis for the major region of each commodity. By adjusting for the roll through time we get a clear picture of how rich or cheap basis is currently as compared to the past 5 years data. In addition, when can visually estimate the seasonal change in basis until the end of the current marketing year.

Weighted Futures Price Charts

Weighted Futures PriceFutures rolls and seasonality can distort the value of monitoring a front month futures contract. By weighting a broader range of forward contracts ,we can smooth out some of the price distortion and better analyze futures prices against recent and historical values. Our weighted futures price is a reflection of the value of one calendar year forward of futures prices weighted heaviest in the front contract with diminishing weights the further out the curve. Like the basis and spot charts, we include the 5 year average with the range from high to low through the current marketing year.

Futures Forward Curve

Futures Forward CurveMonitoring the shape of the forward curve as compared to recent history can help us gauge the level of carry in a commodity along with the markets general outlook for future prices. The forward curve can also signal extreme prices as it tends to become very steep (large contango) when markets have been oversold and very flat or inverted (large backwardation) when markets have over extended to the high-side. Our charts highlight the degree of "slope" in the current market structure as compared to the previous year and 5 year average for one calendar year of contracts.