With grain margins tight, farmers can no longer afford to market by chance. No matter how you manage your grain marketing or the risk management products you use, there are some things you need to know!

 

Markets are now driven by machines...

The days of subjective decision making when it comes to market timing are numbered. Recent studies suggest discretionary traders or those who rely on forecasts or fundamental analysis, now account for only 10% of exchange volume. Similarly, data from BarclayHedge, a leading tracker of commodity trading advisors confirms, nearly 90% of the $355 billion managed by commodity money managers is driven by "systematic" models. In other words, the pro's don't guess when to make trading decisions and neither should you.

 

What happened to the analysts and experts?

Investment management and proprietary trading firms discovered the power and predictability of systematic trading years ago. Not only does it eliminate emotion, anxiety, and uncertainty, they found that with a scientific approach, they could minimize risk and maximize profitability. In the highly competitive world of money management, it was adapt or die. Today, all but a very few make decisions on a discretionary basis. In fact, "algorithmic trading" now dominates nearly every facet of proprietary trading, exchange based investing and commodity risk management. As a result, the market analysts and experts have been replaced by computers, coders, and quants.

 

How's this impacting grain marketing?

When computers drive trading decisions, the window of opportunity to react becomes smaller. Countless numbers of algorithms drive the markets today but they all look at virtually the same data. Simultaneously monitoring and calculating the most efficient points to buy and sell, they often identify the same trigger levels. Once a trigger is identified, your time to act before the opportunity is lost is fleeting. Conversely, producers with a systematic strategy in their corner can act while others are still pouring over lagging fundamental data.  

 

 

"Intelligence is the ability to adapt to change"

                                                                                                                Stephen Hawking

 

 

Producers should adopt a dual analysis strategy!

Are we advocating throwing out traditional fundamental analysis? To the contrary, fundamental market analysis should be guiding your longer term decision processes. Purchasing or leasing more land, buying new equipment or warehousing, as well as planting or crop rotation decisions are just a few of the items where longer term fundamental analysis should play a guiding role. But fundamental analysis is not well suited for market timing. Markets often move well before the fundamental reasons are known or before a producer can act on new information. Producers need a systematic model to reinforce their longer term marketing plans. Fundamental analysis may correctly tell you the longer term forecast is for higher prices, but they won't tell you when those prices may have peaked until well after the fact. Producer must employ both to optimize their marketing efficiency.

 

Can a producer gain access to systematic timing model?

Absolutely, and we've made it flexible and affordable! I created ABSR following a career in managed futures and proprietary trading. I've spent years researching, modeling, back-testing and executing systematic programs. Leveraging this deep background and understanding and applying it to agriculture marketing we developed a system that identifies key market highs and lows in a given marketing year.  We employ the same techniques as the largest trading advisors and pass the results on to you.

Don't confuse technical analysis with a systematic model. A true "system" is rules based, back-tested, and provides specific and quantifiable action levels and allocations, not general price references or obscure allocation levels.

For example, when our model tells us it's time to act, we send you a text alert containing a confidence level, maximum allocation rate and exact entry price. No vague quantities, entry prices or ambiguous timing that keep you wondering. We eliminate the guess work so you have the confidence to act knowing the odds are in your favor. This is next generation precision grain marketing.

 

Your'e still in control...

As an independent advisor, we're not paid to sell you risk management products. You choose the market products best suited to your risk comfort level and situation. Our model works with spot-cash contracts, physical delivery contracts, futures, options or any combination you choose. Follow your own plan or one of the three portfolio models. Ultimately, it's your plan, we just make it better. 

  • Prefer to hedge all your production before harvest? Follow the 100% Pre Harvest Hedged model portfolio.

  • Don’t sell until after harvest? Use our Post Harvest Only model for spot cash and carry hedges.

  • Want to employ a combination of Pre and Post harvest marketing? Monitor our 50/50 model or adjust it to match your own plan.

  • Need a custom solution to your marketing needs? We will custom build a program specifically designed around your marketing needs and send you your own customized alerts. (custom program only)

 

It's All About Results...Start Optimizing Your Marketing Today!

Register for a 30 Day Risk Free Trial!

Your Trial Includes...

  • Daily Agriculture Edge Market Monitor Letter

  • Weekly Commitment of Traders Report

  • Access to our Proprietary Marketing Dashboards

  • Proprietary Timely Research Notes

What our subscribers are saying...

"The ABSR site is a must stop every day in my market prep.  It’s a great source of information and analysis that helps me focus on opportunities for my own trading and for my clients. Shawn has been one of the best private market research resources on the street for a long time and it’s great to see his work available to a wider audience."

Jim E. – Pres., EMI Institutional Markets

 

"ABSR has quickly become my first “go-to” source for agricultural market data.  Shawn Bingham’s research is very thorough and intentionally formatted in a concise, easy-to-read format.  I have found it useful for tracking trading trends along with helping me confirm my market conviction."

Larry Shover, CIO & Portfolio Manager, Solution Funds Group


 

Results: 2018/19 Crop Year

2018 Pre-Harvest Sell Signal Results: All Signals

ContractContract MonthSignalsAvg. DaysWeighted Avg. PriceMarket Avg. PriceNet
Corn18-Dec82.4401.17384.6916.48
Soybeans18-Nov621006.8495749.84
SRW Wheat18-Jul82.8521.63491.7429.89
Cotton18-Dec85.577.5479.83-2.29

2018 Pre-Harvest Buy Signal Results: All Signals

ContractContract MonthSignalsAvg. DaysWeighted Avg. PriceMarket Avg. PriceNet
Corn18-Dec64365.03384.69-19.66
Soybeans18-Nov66.3920.15957-36.85
SRW Wheat18-Jul73.1474.13491.74-17.61
Cotton18-Dec53.679.8479.830.01

Our Marketing Dashboard:

DATEPERCENTREFERENCEPRICETYPEDELIVERY
TOTAL100%WGT AVG403.15MKT AVG384.69
01/31/1815%CZ18391.50HEDGEHARVEST
02/09/1815%CZ18393.75HEDGEHARVEST
02/20/1815%CZ18396.00HEDGEHARVEST
03/08/1821%CZ18405.00HEDGEHARVEST
04/10/1824%CZ18412.75HEDGEHARVEST
05/03/1810%CZ18418.50HEDGEHARVEST
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